How Winter Affects Healthcare Staffing in Australia (2026)

Winter creates a structural workforce squeeze across Australian healthcare. Patient demand spikes through flu, RSV, and COVID activity, while the same viruses pull frontline staff out on sick leave. The 2025 flu season was the largest in two decades, with over 427,000 influenza notifications and hospital admissions running more than 55 per cent above the five-year average. This guide explains why winter staffing pressure happens, what the current Australian data shows, and how aged care providers, hospitals, and remote health services can plan their workforce to absorb the seasonal surge instead of scrambling through it.

E4 People places pre-screened, AHPRA-compliant nurses, AINs, midwives, and allied health workers across NSW, QLD, VIC, TAS, ACT, and SA, including travel nursing contracts for regional and remote facilities. Talk to our team before winter intake to lock in cover.

Quick guide: 6 ways winter affects healthcare staffing

1. Patient admissions spike. The 2025 Australian flu season set a 24-year record with 427,000+ influenza notifications (NNDSS).
2. Staff sick leave rises in parallel, often pulling 10 to 20 per cent of permanent rosters out on any given winter week.
3. Aged care outbreaks accelerate. Residential care facilities must invoke Winter Plans (Department of Health) including PPE, vaccination, and outbreak protocols.
4. Remote and regional facilities are hit hardest. Smaller candidate pools and longer travel chains mean a single sick call can take a roster from tight to unsafe.
5. Cost of last-minute coverage climbs as demand for agency staff peaks.
6. Forward-planning facilities outperform reactive ones, using locked-in travel contracts, pre-screened agency pools, and refreshed sick-leave protocols.

The state of winter pressure on Australian healthcare in 2026

Winter workforce pressure is not anecdotal. Multiple national surveillance systems track it in real time.

• More than 427,000 influenza notifications were reported to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) in 2025, the highest annual total since influenza became nationally notifiable in 2001.
• Influenza notifications in 2025 were around 21 per cent higher than 2024, and hospital admissions for influenza ran more than 55 per cent above the five-year average.
• The 2025 season was extended late by the emergence of an A(H3N2) subclade K variant, antigenically distinct from the season's vaccine strain (Doherty Institute).
• Australian winter respiratory peaks typically fall between May and September, with influenza usually peaking in August (Queensland Health, NSW Health).
• Federal Government COVID sick leave funding for aged care employees ended in April 2024, shifting more of the sick-leave cost back to providers.
• The Communicable Diseases Network Australia requires every residential aged care home to have a Winter Plan covering vaccination, PPE, and outbreak management.

1. Why does winter create a healthcare staffing crisis in Australia?

Winter compresses three pressures into the same eight to twelve weeks. Acute demand rises as flu, RSV, COVID-19, and other respiratory viruses circulate. Permanent staff catch the same viruses they are treating, so sick leave and primary-carer leave climb at exactly the moment ratios need to hold. And clinical complexity goes up, because winter respiratory illness disproportionately affects older residents and chronically ill patients, increasing acuity per bed.

The result is predictable. Roster gaps widen, overtime balloons, and the staff who turn up absorb the load until burnout starts cycling people out of permanent roles.

2. How big is the 2025 to 2026 winter flu surge for Australian hospitals?

The 2025 Australian flu season was the largest since national notification began in 2001. Influenza notifications passed 427,000, up around 21 per cent on 2024, and hospital admissions for influenza ran over 55 per cent above the five-year average. Children under five and primary-school aged children accounted for roughly a third of respiratory admissions in some regions, but the highest mortality stayed concentrated in older Australians.

The Doherty Institute attributes the extended late-2025 surge to an A(H3N2) subclade K variant that proved antigenically distinct from the 2025 vaccine strain. For 2026 planners, the takeaway is to expect another high-volume season and to build roster buffers accordingly.

3. How do influenza outbreaks affect aged care facility staffing?

In residential aged care, a single positive case can trigger outbreak protocols that pull whole shifts into isolation cohorts, restrict casual staff movement across units, and force facilities to source replacement labour that is already familiar with infection-control procedures. The Communicable Diseases Network Australia's national guideline requires every residential aged care home to have a Winter Plan in place.

Typical operational impacts during a winter outbreak include:

• Staff absenteeism of 15 to 25 per cent in the affected unit during peak weeks.
• Loss of routine casual cover, because casuals are restricted to one site to limit cross-facility spread.
• Need for fit-tested, vaccinated, immunisation-compliant agency staff at very short notice.
• Increased AN-ACC documentation load alongside outbreak-related clinical observations.

4. Why are remote and regional facilities hit hardest by winter staffing pressure?

Rural and remote facilities operate with thinner permanent rosters in the first place. The local candidate pool is smaller, and replacement staff often need to travel from a metro hub. When one or two permanent nurses go down with influenza, there is no slack, and a single shift can take the facility from tight to unsafe.

Travel nursing contracts (typically four to twelve weeks, with flights, accommodation, and consultant support arranged by the recruitment partner) are the practical fix. They put an experienced nurse on the ground for the duration of the surge, not just a single shift.

E4 People's travel nursing programme is built for exactly this scenario. Contracts can be sourced and onboarded for remote and regional sites with full compliance pre-checked.

5. How should aged care providers plan for winter staffing?

The providers who hold up in winter share five planning habits. Start in March or early April for the May to September window.

• Run vaccination drives by mid-April. Get the staff influenza vaccination rate above 90 per cent before flu activity climbs.
• Pre-deploy PPE and stock outbreak supplies for at least two weeks of operations at every facility.
• Refresh your written Winter Plan against the current Communicable Diseases Network Australia guideline.
• Lock in agency cover early. Pre-onboard a pool of agency RNs, ENs, and AINs with one staffing partner so when a shift opens, the fill is fast and familiar.
• Audit your sick-leave policy. With Federal COVID sick-leave funding ended for aged care since April 2024, the cost of sick leave now sits with the provider. Build it into the budget rather than letting it derail it.
  
  

6. What should hospital and remote health services do differently in winter?

Public hospitals already have surge protocols, but the workforce equation is sharper than it looks. Three actions tend to move the needle:

• Forecast staffing against the previous winter's actual admissions data, not against pre-COVID baselines, which now significantly understate respiratory volume.
• Build a travel-nurse pipeline for ED, ICU, and respiratory wards eight to twelve weeks before peak (early to mid-April for the August peak).
• Coordinate with primary care and aged care partners on transfers. A clear discharge pathway for stable respiratory patients eases bed pressure on both sides.

Reactive vs. forward-planned winter staffing

Who benefits from a planned winter workforce strategy?

For aged care managers and directors of nursing

• Predictable cover for the May to September window.
• Stronger compliance with care minute targets even during outbreaks.
• Reduced overtime and reduced burnout for permanent staff.
• Faster outbreak response with familiar, compliant agency staff already onboarded.

For hospital and remote health workforce planners

• Travel nurses in place before the August peak, not after.
• Continuity of care for the same patients across the surge.
• Less reliance on overtime as the surge plan.

For nurses, AINs, and allied health workers

• A steady stream of work through the high-demand winter months.
• Travel contracts with flights, accommodation, and consultant support.
• Exposure to new clinical environments and locations.
• Predictable shifts and a single point of contact through the season.

How can healthcare workers make the most of winter shift demand?

For agency, travel, and casual healthcare workers, winter is the highest-demand window of the year. Three practical steps make it easier to convert that demand into work that suits you, not work that burns you out.

1. Update your CV and compliance documents by late March. Police Check, Working with Children Check, NDIS Worker Screening, current immunisation evidence, current CPR, and AHPRA registration all need to be in date.
2. Tell your consultant your availability, location preferences, and any locations you'd consider for travel contracts well before May.
3. Build recovery into your roster. Even with high demand, take your full breaks and protect at least one full clinical-contact-free day per week to avoid mid-season burnout.
   
   

Final thoughts

Winter brings real pressure to Australian healthcare. It does not have to bring chaos. The facilities that turn the season from a workforce woe into a workforce win share a single habit. They plan in March for the surge that hits in August, not in August for the surge that already hit.

E4 People helps aged care, hospital, and remote health teams plan and staff their winter workforce across Australia. Contact our team for agency cover, travel nursing for regional and remote roles, or permanent placements to build a steadier core team before next winter.

About the author

Written by E4 People's editorial team. We support aged care, hospital, and remote health teams across Australia through 14 winter seasons, placing nurses, AINs, midwives, and allied health professionals into surge cover and permanent roles.

Sources

• Australian Centre for Disease Control: Seasonal flu
• Doherty Institute: 2025, the year that influenza surprised us
• Immunisation Coalition: Influenza Statistics
• Department of Health: Managing infectious respiratory diseases in aged care
• Communicable Diseases Network Australia: National Guideline for ARI outbreaks in aged care
• NSW Health: Influenza in residential aged care, disability and home care
• Nurse & Midwife Support (24/7)